Sunday, January 08, 2006

The January Effect: Anomalous Returns (from the chili?)

In an AP story posted on Mercury News, there seems to be some doubt about the "January Effect's" likelihood to hold sway over the equity markets in 2006: 'January Effect' may be hard to keep up. At least, that's the impression one gets from the story's title. But read a little ways into, like, oh, let's say, the second paragraph?, and one can't help but wonder why the title wasn't changed to fit the tone of the article.

A friend and I were just talking about this last night, and noting, if memory served us correctly, that the stock market's initial days last year were pretty much mirrored by its performance for the remainder of 2005. Looking back on the year without the benefit of data in front of me (or the compulsion to go get any), I don't recall last year's returns being anything spectac. But this year is off to a raging start! Google has everyone thinking 'bubble', even if only a few are willing to say it. Hey, I want to believe too, but Ja heezus, have you seen GOOG's valuations? Of course, it's a bit easier to see what all the fuss is about, especially when you're putting up quarterly year-on-year revenue growth of 95% and earnings growth of 633%! Cha Ching!

That headline was clearly meant to get attention. So far this year, I read very few words that are decidedly against the January Effect.

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